Area Real Estate Sales Strengthen in May

Following two months of significantly slower sales activity in March and April wherein sales were approximately 20% below the same months last year, area real estate sales made a stronger comeback May.

Individual unit sales reported through the MLS® system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board (GTREB) in May were down 5% versus May of 2010, totaling 183 sales compared to 193 sales last year. Sales revenue for the month of $51.2 million was 4% below the $53.5 million worth of properties sold in May of last year. Unlike prior months where higher-end sales drove sales revenue, May saw only one sale reported over $1 million versus 3 sales of $1+ million in May 2010. Nonetheless, sales over $1 million for the year are up 44% with a total of 13 sales in this price range to date.
Following the stronger sales activity in May, the gap in year-to-date dollar sales has narrowed. Sales revenue through the end of May totals $211.2 million compared to $219.4 million worth of properties sold in the first five months of 2010. Unit sales year-to-date however remain well off last year's pace with 698 individual MLS sales reported this year versus 788 through the end of May last year, a decrease in excess of 11%.
Other than Wasaga Beach where unit sales are up 3%, every other local municipality has seen a decrease in unit sales activity year-to-date. Clearview Township -4%, Collingwood -3%, Grey Highlands -10%, Municipality Meaford -37%, The Blue Mountains -14%.
Overall the year appears to be shaping up much like 2009 which saw softer sales activity in the first six months of the year with very robust sales activity through the summer and fall. The latter half of 2010 saw much weaker sales and this has obviously spilled over into 2011.

Area Real Estate Sales Soften in March

  After posting strong sales in January and February, real estate activity reported through the MLS® system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board (GTREB) softened in March with 155 properties changing hands during the month versus 199 in March 2010, a decrease of 22%. Sales volume in March also declined with a total of $48.5 million worth of MLS® listed properties selling as compared to $56.7 million in the same month last year.

  Year-to-date MLS® sales total 348 individual properties down 10% from the 387 sales reported in the 1st quarter of 2010. As in prior months, sales at the upper end of the market continue to play a dominant role with respect to sales revenue. Unit sales in most price ranges below $500,000 have declined in 2011 while sales activity above $500,000 remains very strong. To the end of March there have been 10 MLS® sales reported over $1 million whereas last year there were just 2 in the same time period.
  The number of new listings coming onto the market has slowed this year which is resulting in more balanced market conditions that favour neither seller nor buyer. Through the end of March a total of 1,497 new MLS® listings have come onto the market as compared to 1,527 new listings in the first 3 months of 2010, a decrease of 2%. The number of expired listings is also on the decline with 692 listings having expired this year versus 719 in 2010, a drop of 4%.
For a complete summary of market activity 1st quarter 2011 versus 2010, please see the latest edition of my Georgian Triangle Real Estate News.  To discuss your particular real estate situation or goals, please feel free to Contact Me without obligation.

February Real estate Sales Continue to Show Strength

Area real estate activity in February continued to show a strengthening in both sales and listing activity across most municipalities in the Georgian Triangle, reflecting further improvements in consumer confidence from the same time last year.

  Sales reported through the MLS® system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board (GTREB) posted a 38% increase in dollar revenue for the month with sales of $40.1 million versus $29.2 million one year ago.  Unit sales were up slightly during the month, 9% with a total of 117 properties changing hands compared to 107 last year. 

  As was the case in January, we continue to see significantly higher sales of upper-end properties which is the main factor driving the increased sales revenue.  A total of 4 properties sold valued at over $1 million with one property hitting an all time high for the area of $3.25 million.  By comparison there were no $1 million dollar sales in the first two months of 2010.

  Year-to-date MLS® sales revenue totals $62.8 million up 27% from $49.6 million in the first two months of 2011.  The number of new listings that have come onto the market this year total 923 properties up 8% from 856 new listings at the end of February 2011. Despite an increase in the number of listings, there is still for the most part an insufficient supply of properties for sale by property type, in any given area and in several price ranges.  This is serving to help balance the market in favour of neither buyers nor sellers.  There is however one exception.  Despite a sharp increase in the sale of $1 million + properties, there are currently 63 active listings for homes priced over $1 million.

  On a year-to-date basis the municipalities of Collingwood and Wasaga Beach are both showing a reduction is sales activity of 7% while sales in Grey Highlands are down 40%.   Conversely Clearview sales are essentially equal to the first two months of last year, while sales in the Blue Mountains are up 30%.

  Taking a quick look at condominium sales indicates that year-to-date MLS® condo sales total 37 units down from 44 units sold in the first two months of 2010.  Condo sales in the Blue Mountains have increased this year with 16  sales being reported compared to 12 in 2010, an increase of 33%.  Collingwood condo sales on the other hand have taken a hit this year.  Through the end of February there have been 16 MLS® condo sales in Collingwood compared to 30 in the same period last year.  This may be just an aberration and we will continue to watch this situation closely in the coming months to see if it is indicating a more permanent trend.  

The average residential sale price year-to-date is $352,259 up 22% from the average sale price of $287,239 a year ago.  This increase can for the most part be attributed to the significant increase in home sales over the $1 million mark in the first two months of the year and should not be construed as price appreciation across the overall market.  

  For more detailed markeyt inform ation 

Market Forecasting

  Without a doubt one the most frequently asked questions I get at “Open Houses,” social gatherings, in the grocery store and on the street etc. is: "how's the market?” This appears to be one of the most talked about subjects at dinner, cocktail parties and just in general no matter what the economic climate we may be in.

  As with almost anything, it’s easy to report on things in a “past” sense. As REALTORS®, we have at our disposal numerous reports on a monthly basis that indicate sales in units, dollars, by price range and much the same applies for listing activity as well. I have always paid close attention to market statistics because frankly I believe it’s a large part of what WE are paid for. Consumers can look at property all day long online without my help. They can even get a sense of what going on by just looking around their neighbourhood at the “For Sale” or “Sold” signs. Helping them better understand the market from behind the scenes is now a crucial component of what we need to do in order to demonstrate the value we as professional REALTORS® bring to every real estate transaction.
  Reporting on past market conditions is easy and I will cover year-to-date market activity in my next posting. What about the future? In this ever-changing globally driven world that appears to be an increasingly difficult subject for most to get a handle on. Companies typically did five year business plans. Five years in today’s world is an eternity so making five and even two or three year plans is almost worthless.  Look at stock market activity, few seem to be able to foresee the signifiant swings up and or down that regularly happen in this seemingly volatile environment.  The same applies for real estate. The old patterns of sales and listing activity for the most part have changed dramatically. Yes, new listings typically increase in the spring and taper of in the fall as do sales but in between those seasons it’s often a roller coaster ride of unprecedented proportions.
  As previously noted the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has just “boosted” their forecast for national resale home activity in 2011. Last November, CREA predicted a sales decrease nationally of 4.9% with a total of 402,500 homes anticipated to sell in 2011. In the coming months we will see how accurate these numbers prove to be and if will further forecast revisions will be required. No doubt many of you are experiencing the same forecasting dilemma in your own businesses.  Budgeting for inventory, staffing and other requirements is often about as accurate as gazing into a crystal ball.  The ball is increasingly cloudy and one must make adjustments on-the-fly in order to capitalize on business opportunities when they arise. 
  In my next post I will re-cap market activity in our area for the first two months of the 2011. That’s the easy part, what lies ahead is anyone’s guess and I will comment on that as well.

Canadian Real Estate Association Increases 2011/2012 Sales Forecast

Based on higher than expected market activity in the latter half of 2010, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its 2011 sales forecast for residential sales through the Association's MLS® system. 
The revised forecast stems from several factors.  For one, buyers realize that the current mortgage rates still remain at historically low levels and have no place to go but up.  The overall economic outlook for Canada remains positive and is continuing to improve and with it, consumer confidence is also on the move upward.  National home sale in 2010 topped 447,010 units.  CREA have forecasted a slight decrease (-1.6%) in unit sales for 2011 with sales expected to reach 439,900 homes.  Conversely, CREA has improved their forecast for 2012 and are now anticipating sales nationwide to reach 453,000 homes, an increase of 3.0%.   
  How does Ontario fair in all of this?  In 2010 home sales in Ontario reached 195,591 units, a decrease of 0.1% from 2009.  Sales in the province for 2011 are forecasted to decline a further 5.2% with a total of 185,500 homes being sold.  Slight improvement in Ontario sales activity is expected for 2012 with unit sales increasing to 187,900 an increase of 1.3%  over forecasted sales for this year.  All of this spells good news for consumers in that we are decidedly moving in the direction of more balanced market conditions which favours neither buyers nor sellers.
  For further information relative to the local market please see my Georgian Triangle Real Estate News and my Condo Communique´ newsletters both of which can be subscribed to at www.propertycollingwood.com.

Upper End Home Sales Continue to Drive Area Real Estate Sales Upward

Although we continue to have a cold snowy winter, certain aspects of the real estate market have really started to heat up early in 2011 most notably the upper end of the market.
  To date we have had 3 sales (that I am aware of) ranging in price from $1.8 to $3.25 million.  One of those was a property not listed on the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS® which I sold myself for over $2.7 million.  Further, two adjoining waterfront properties one of which was a vacant lot sold to the same buyer for $900,000 each so that too was essentially a $1.8 million dollar sale.  Three of these upper end sales were waterfront properties in the Blue Mountains.  In 2009 and 2010, higher end waterfront properties languished on the market.  Now barely six weeks into the new year with the beach areas buried under ice and snow not visible for the buyers to inspect and they are selling quite briskly.
  January sales reported through the MLS® system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board (GTREB) were $22.7 million up 11% from $20.5 million in January 2010.  Not included in the January 2011 results was the aforementioned sale of over $2.7 million which did not go through GTREB's MLS®.  Unit sales in Janaury 2011 actually dropped from the prior year 77 versus 81 sold in January 2010 so the revenue increase was driven purely by the sale of more expensive properties.  The Municipality of Meaford and the Blue Mountains are the only two municipalities showing an increase in unit sales for January.
  People keep talking about it being a buyer's market but I for one am not buying into the notion.  Sure, the number of new MLS® listings this year through the end of January are up 5% but in any given price range, property type or area the selection is quite slim.  I have buyers ready and willing to make a purchase right now, we just can't find the right property. All of the aforementioned million dollar sales were at prices that exceeded 90% of their respective asking prices so there were hardly "given away."
  One month certainly does not make a year but improving economic conditions, renewed consumer confidence and the threat of higher interest rates down the road are bringing people back into the real estate buying mode, some in a very big way.  As the saying goes "an ill wind always blows someone some good."  The abundance of snow this winter resulting in fabulous ski, snowboard and snowmobiling conditions is bringing people to the area in droves. This in turn stimulates the local economy including real estate activity so in addition improved economic conditions, Mother Nature deserves some credit as well.

Area Condo Sales Increase Show Modest Increase in 2010

Condominiums have and continue to be a significant segment in the local real estate market and 2010 was no exception.  Many first-time recreational buyers in the area start with a modest 2 or 3 bedroom condo purchase then subsequently move up to a second property either in the form of a larger more upscale condominium or to a single family home/chalet.  Case in point.  In 2004 I sold a 3 bedroom 1,500+ square foot waterfront condo to a couple from Toronto.  Four years later they traded up to a 3,800+ square foot home I procured for them that sold for over $1 million.  While the monetary magnitude of their second purchase was higher than usual the pattern is not. Condo buyers often find they use their property much more than anticipated and quickly find they need something larger.  Further, with an aging demographic many of whom are approaching retirement, the move from a modest condo to something larger for full-time retirement residency is a natural progression. 

  A total of 331 condo sales were reported through the MLS®system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board in 2010, 6 sales more than in 2009.  Condo sales in Collingwood actually dipped slightly from 202 in 2009 to 198 last year.  Conversely, condo sales in the Blue Mountains increased from 103 sold in 2009 to 109 in 2010.  MLS®condominium sales revenue totaled $75.8 million in 2010 up from $70.6 million in condo sales the prior year.  None of the aforementioned statistics include the sale of new condominium units in developments such as The Shipyards and others. When the sales of new units are are added in, the Collingwood and area condo market can only be seen as being vibrant, offering those that prefer the maintenance-free lifestyle of condo living either as a full or part-time residence, plenty to choose from.  For a complete re-cap of the condo market comparing 2009 and 2010 please see the winter 2011 of my Condo Communique´newsletter or Contact me for further information regarding specific developments. 

How Were Sales in Your Area Last Year?

Real estate sales activity throughout the various municipalities that make up the market area of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board offered up a mixed bag of results for 2010 with many showing continued improvement in sales following the downturn in activity we experienced in late 2008 early 2009. The Blue Mountains, Wasaga Beach however both posted a decrease in the number of residential properties sold during the year as compared to 2009. Unit sales in the Blue Mountains decreased the most, down 8.5% from the prior year with 151 sales as compared to 165 in 2009. Wasaga Beach had 357 sales a decline of 3.3%.


Residential sales in Tiny and Clearview Townships were essentially unchanged in 2010 whereas the municipalities of Collingwood (up 6.9%), Grey Highlands (up 38.0%), Meaford (up5.4%) all showed increased sales activity.

Some significant shifts took place with respect to average pricing in these areas but this should not be construed as being an appreciation in property values. As mentioned in my prior posting, sales activity at the upper end of our market last year grew significantly with sales between $500,000 and $800,000 up 40.0%, sales between $800,000 and $1 million increased 33.3% and lastly sales above the $1 million threshold increased a whopping 86.7% with a total of 28 sales posted through the MLS® system of the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board. The two areas reflecting the highest average residential prices were Mulmur Township with an average price of $543,140 while The Blue Mountains followed closely with an average residential price of $510,427. Residential sales in Mulmur Township are traditionally made up of acreage or estate type properties while The Blue Mountains is home to many of the area’s higher priced homes close to area ski and golf clubs.

The increased activity we experienced last year with upper-end “luxury” home sales helped to drive the average residential price for our market overall at the end of December to $314,937 from $286,378 one year earlier, an increase of 10.0%. The lowest average price for residential housing can be found in the Municipality of Meaford - $264,954, Wasaga Beach - $267,477 and in Collingwood - $275,895. Moving forward we will undoubtedly see continued growth in the sales of higher priced homes, driven by the influx of buyers from the GTA purchasing these properties for recreational and or retirement use. These higher end sales impact disproportionately both the overall sales revenue and the average residential pricing for our area leading one to believe that overly positive conditions exist when they in fact do not. Whether you are buying or selling, every property transaction deserves a detailed comparable analysis to ensure that the appropriate pricing is applied. For further information with respect to your real estate decision(s) please feel free to Contact me.  For a complete summary of area real estate activity 2009 versus 2010, see the latest issue of my Georgian Triangle Real Estate News.